Yes, when I closed my last post on the failed process to write a new constitution in Chile, I thought I would not return to that topic for quite a while.
So, I started to tell my story about Dignidad. But now having spent almost a month back in Chile visiting with friends, relatives, and enjoying some old haunts where a simple person like me nourishes the body and mind with traditional concoctions like locos en salsa verde and porotos granados and earthy wines like pipeño from Maule, I feel the need to add a few thoughts on Chile’s recent quest for a new constitution, dangling as these thoughts may be.
To me, it’s amazing how rapidly the need, or desire, for a completely new constitution has diminished. Admittedly, I don’t move in politically important circles in Chile. Santiago is my second home for a few weeks every year but, when I’m not here, I try to stay connected through regular discussions with friends, and I read the locally-produced print media on a daily basis. So, I have the sensation of knowing what’s going on, although I have to admit this ability may be diminishing along with other lamentable erosions of my body and mind. I still feel very deeply for this place called Chile, so I continue to be stimulated by political and social life here so I enjoy putting my thoughts in script and sharing them.
As we arrived in Santiago, Chileans were beginning their exodus from the cities, especially Santiago (did you know that there are only two cities in the US larger than Santiago; New York and Los Angeles?). It is a very congested and socio-economically segregated metropolis. We kind of like it more when the vacationers leave and the streets are more drivable and the stores and restaurants are less crowded. Our first days here are usually taken up with settling in to our apartment, checking up on relatives (several with increasingly worrisome ailments), and greeting friends, many of whom are heading off to the beaches or the southern lakes for weeks of vacation; we will probably catch up with them towards the end of February and in March when they are back in the city.
This time there is a subtle sensation that Chile and Chileans have suffered a lot as a result of the 2019 social uprising (estallido), the shutdown of schools and businesses during the Covid pandemic, and repeated and continuing waves of immigrants, some from neighboring countries Bolivia and Peru, but more recently Haiti and especially Venezuela, all requiring space to live, employment to sustain their families, and scarce health care. Add to this the fact that Chileans have lived through 12 years of zero or very low annual economic growth, and presently has the third worst economic growth of any country in Latin America, with projections for 2024 not at all promising.
The graph above shows Chile’s economic growth over the past ten years.
These factors have had an impact on the way people live, move around, work, and socialize. After the turn of the Century, Chile’s relatively successful open, free market economy, their “Projecto Pais“, in which the private and public sectors collaborated to provide a rhythm of economic growth, projected (at least to me) a country on the move, developing and providing increasing amounts and improved quality of goods and services to its people. The lethargy of the past decade, however, is not a situation Chileans are used to, nor should they be.
Around this topic I offer two stand out impressions:
First, construction of new housing and city buildings is down, not at a standstill, but it is very slow. Over the years we became used to watching several tall cranes working at the same time on new apartment buildings within view of our apartment, and even though that brought layers of dust and soot to our balcony and within, it was a sign of “progress”. We could sit on the balcony, sipping a cold glass of wine (or two), looking out over the city and feel like all the construction was a good thing, investment, employment, new middle-class housing. Today there are only a couple of cranes, mostly not working much, way off in the distance. The real estate market is reportedly very slow, although an expat friend recently did sell his apartment, but another is having trouble selling his. You can sense that people are staying in place, the excitement of moving up to a new home seems on hold.
Second, personal security now inhabits the minds and tempers the actions of Chileans and expats living here. Chile is still generally safer than most other countries in Latin America, but the nature of violence and crime here has changed. Some Chileans are quick to blame the waves of immigrants that have continued to come into Chile, legally and illegally, similar to the demonization of immigrants in the US. While it is pretty clear that certain groups of Venezuelan and Colombian immigrants have indeed brought with them more violent criminals, narco terrorists, and advanced weaponry than Chile was accustomed to, there are also more domestic reasons for the increase in insecurity.
A column published recently in El Mercurio, by Alejandro Micco, a University of Chile economics professor, addresses the situation quite well, very balanced while somewhat positive, which I appreciate. He points out that in 2023, inflation in Chile rose to 12.8% on a yearly basis, but by the end of 2023 had gone down to 3.9%, suggesting that the macro-economic institutions are working. He emphasizes that the Agreement for Social Peace and a New Constitution (2019), while it did not result in a new constitution, did put a brake on the political strife (the estallido) that at the time was threatening to unseat the democratically elected presidency of Sebastian Piñera. Some go so far as to suggest this agreement prevented a civil war.
Micco admits that a recent series of scandals related to the abuse of power and position, involving mayors and high-level officials has weakened even more the public’s already low opinion of the public sector’s ability to govern well. Corruption in the misuse of public funds by new political players and parties belies the earlier self-professed “moral superiority” of the Gabriel Boric crowd that came to power in 2022. Micco suggests Chile needs significant strengthening of controls and more transparency at all levels, regardless of who is in power, but especially at the communal level now that more public resources are being directed towards these local municipalities in an attempt to decentralize power and decision making.
Micco’s tempered optimism, and I’ll go along with him, stems from the fact that in the process for a new constitution, both the left and the right extremes were exposed, and rejected by large majorities of the populace. However, there is the burning question of “can the center rise up”? There are some signs that it might. In the debate over retirement pensions, a key issue for the Boric administration, intermediate proposals are surfacing. The discussion on tax reform is not just focused on an ask for huge increases, but also on ways to decrease evasion and avoidance. And maybe the best indication of a more balanced political discussion is the higher priority now being given by Boric and the Congress to efforts that facilitate economic growth, such as streamlining onerous regulations and permit protocols. Hence, Micco thinks that maybe Chile is again entering a period of prioritizing economic growth, dialogue, and search for common ground agreements.
As is so often the case in Chile, as I struggle to complete this quick description of my first thoughts upon returning to Chile, two tragic events have taken over the headlines, the TV talk shows, and of course people’s minds: a series of megafires is destroying woodlands and residences on the hills surrounding Valparaiso and Viña del Mar. As if that weren’t enough, reports have just come in that ex-President Sebastian Piñera has died while piloting his helicopter at one of his vacation spots, Lago Ranco, in southern Chile. Both of these events must attract everyone’s attention over the next few days, so I will end this post and follow these tragedies more closely.
Posted on February 7, 2024, in Santiago, Chile.
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David Joslyn, after a 45-year career in international development with USAID, Peace Corps, The Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA), The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, and private sector consulting firms, divides his time between his homes in Virginia and Chile. Since 2010, David has been writing about Chile and Chileans, often based upon his experience with the Peace Corps in Chile and his many travels throughout the country with family and friends.
Thanks for your periodic updates, long and short, on all things Chile. They are always welcome and on the mark. As a Chile sun bird over the last 22 years, I’m always surprised and humbled by what I don’t know about Chile despite spending so much time there playing golf and drinking wine — discouraged this time by Chile’s poor economic performance over the last few years and the dim outlook for 2024/5. And worse yet – only two cities in the US, LA and NYC, are larger than Santiago? – bigger populations, land extensions, or urban problems?. Keep up the the good reporting!
You need to come back fast, Ed. Wine sales are down; we are rounding up all the big drinkers for a major push to get Chile’s wine sales back up to reasonable levels. All hands on deck!!
Surprising that Chile’s economic growth, leaving aside the gyrations of 2021-2022, has been so lackluster for the past decade. It does not seem to bode well for the immediate future, with or without a new Constitution.
Right. And with the price of lithium dipping, Chile’s ability to invest out of the doldrums is limited.
Enjoyed this post. Was thinking about you all being down there with the fires burning. So, so sad. We now live with this fear every summer in Oregon. My heart absolutely goes out to all of those impacted. ❤️
Thanks. Fires seem to be endemic threats on the Pacific coast, no matter where. The effects of El Nino weather pattern can be devastating, especially when overlapping with the Sapien desire to “burn something” and to build homes right up to the edge of flammable vegetation. In a way, and in some places, we simply do it to ourselves. But the tragedy in those hills around Valpo and Vina is so palpable, we should all be doing much more to prevent it. We respond fairly well, but prevention is something we put off to tomorrow. Yes, it is sad.